The decline in China’s fertility level and annual number of births have attracted widespread attention from both government and academia (Wang et al., 2018; Zhao and Zhang, 2018; Jiang et al., 2019). Population censuses indicate that the total fertility rate (TFR) has declined continuously, falling from 2.61 in 1982, to 2.25 in 1989, 1.22 in 2000 and 1.18 in 2010. Although the TFR is generally considered to be underreported in census data, the TFR adjusted by scholars is still only around 1.5, well below the replacement level. In 1982, there were 20.4 million births; this figure rose to 23.9 million in 1989, but decreased to 13.8 million in 2010 according to the census data (A more official figure is around 16 million). In order to curtail further decline in fertility and births, the Chinese government relaxed the stringent birth control policy to a universal two-child policy in 2016. However, this reform failed to produce the expected baby boom, and China’s fertility trend and family planning policy adjustment became topics of fierce debate. Fertility decline has been aggravated by marriage postponement, and the shrinking numbers of women of childbearing age will further decrease annual births.

Decomposition of TFR and birth numbers

We decomposed the change in both the TFR (into two terms) and the annual number of births (into three terms), using decomposition equations that are presented in Jiang et al. (2019).

The change in TFR is the combined result of marriage and subsequent childbearing postponement, and of marital fertility rate decline. We used the change in the proportion of married women by age to represent the effect of marriage postponement. If the proportion of married women for a certain age group decreases, then marriage and childbearing postponement has occurred among people in that age group. In short, we decomposed the change in TFR into two terms: the effect of the change in the marital fertility rate (MFR), and the effect of the change in the proportion of married women (PMW).

The annual number of births is the result of three determinants: the number of women of childbearing age, the age structure of women of childbearing age, and the fertility rate. So, we decomposed the change in the annual number of births into the changes in these three determinants.

The study employed unadjusted census data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. As explained before, due to underreporting, both TFRs and birth numbers are relatively low in census data. Some studies have attempted to assess the under-enumeration and adjust the data in China’s census, but there is no consensus on how to do this.

Of course, underreporting of both the TFR and the number of births tends to affect the decomposition results that we present here. However, if underreporting is exactly the same in all Chinese population censuses, the relative contribution of factors will not be biased, as our decomposition formulas show (not reported here).

Results

Table 1 presents the decomposition results of the TFR decline in China in each period. For instance, between 1989 (TFR=2.25) and 2000 (1.22), the decline was 1.03. Of this, 0.61 (60 percent) was attributed to the change in marital fertility rate (MFR) while the other 0.42 (40 percent) was attributed to the change in the proportion of married women (PMW), or marriage postponement. Between 2000 and 2010, the TFR declined by a mere 0.03, but this occurred under the contrasting forces of marriage postponement (‒0.17), and a higher marital fertility rate (+0.14).

Since the population data for cities, townships and villages are not available in the 2000 census, we decomposed the change in TFR for cities (+0.63), townships (‒0.47) and rural populations (‒1.09) between 1989 and 2010. While postponement is the main driver of the fertility decline for urban women, lower marital fertility plays an important role in the other two contexts, suggesting a possible decline in the desired number of children.

Table 2 presents our decomposition of the declining number of births. Between 1982 and 1989, the annual number of births increased by 3.42 million. The mere change in the number of women should have led to an increase of 4.22 million, with the change in the age structure adding another 1.09 million, but the decrease in fertility partly counteracted this, subtracting some 1.89 million births. Between 1989 and 2000, the annual number of births declined by 9.74 million, attributable mainly to the fertility decline, which accounted for a decrease of 9.45 million. For the two periods 1989-2000 and 2000-2010, the rising number of women of childbearing age had an inflating influence on the number of births, whereas the change in their age structure and their fertility acted in the opposite direction.

Future prospects

Marital fertility in China declined between 1989 and 2000 but increased slightly between 2000 and 2010, at least in urban areas. At the same time, however, substantial postponement (of both marriage and childbearing) took place, which depressed the global fertility rate.

Compared with their counterparts in other Asian countries like Japan, South Korea and Singapore who marry at around 30 years of age, Chinese women, who married at about 26 years in 2017, still have ample room for further postponement ‒ and we predict that this will indeed happen.

Another factor that will depress the number of births in China is the decreasing size and changing age structure of the female population of reproductive age, which, according to our projection, will shrink by as much as 46 million between 2010 and 2020 (‒12.1%).

Acknowledging the potential negative implications of long-term low fertility on China’s sustainable development, the Chinese government adopted the universal two-child policy in 2016. It failed to bring about the expected baby boom, however, and the number of births in 2018 actually declined with respect to 2017, from 17.23 to 15.23 million. In today’s China, high real estate prices, the pursuit of higher education and career development, and the rising costs of raising and educating children, all discourage women’s childbearing. The Chinese government is trying to counter this tendency by means of pronatalist policies, such as longer maternal leave, and more extensive childcare provision. Will this be enough? The experience of several developed countries, where low fertility has long been the norm, suggests that more robust measures will probably be needed.

References

Jiang, Q., S. Yang, and S. Li. 2018. The change in China’s birth number. Chinese Journal of Population Science 32(1): 60-70. (In Chinese)

Jiang, Q., S. Yang, S. Li, and M.W. Feldman. 2019. The decline in China’s fertility level: A decomposition analysis. Journal of Biosocial Science.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021932019000038

Wang, F., Y. Cai, K. Shen, and S. Gietel-Basten. 2018. Is demography just a numerical exercise? Numbers, politics, and legacies of China’s one-child policy. Demography 55(2): 693-719.

Zhao, Z., and G. Zhang. 2018. Socioeconomic factors have been the major driving force of China’s fertility changes since the mid-1990s. Demography 55(2): 733-742.

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The number of these “bereaved” parents is increasing annually. The majority attribute their status (loss of their only child) to their compliance with the enforced national birth control policy, and now expect some compensation. They have received some support from both national and local institutions, but the amount is woefully meagre and inadequate. Protests surface now and again, but the problem is yet underexplored, and likely to mount in the future.

Probability of bereavement

Even though the mortality level in China is generally low, the probabilities that an only child will predecease his/her parents are not inconsequential. According to a simulation estimate based on China’s 2000 census data, the cumulative probability of a child predeceasing the mother is about 15% for a son and 12% for a daughter if the mother survives until her child reaches age 60 (Figure 1). But there is also an urban-rural difference. For a city mother, the cumulative probability of her child predeceasing her is 11% for a son and 8% for a daughter; for a township mother, these probabilities increase to 14% and 10%, respectively, and reach 17% and 14% for a rural mother (Jiang et al., 2014).

It is estimated that around one million women aged 49 and over have lost their only child, and the aggregate death toll of only-children may reach 11.8 million by 2050 under the 1.5-child policy¹ that was in force until recently (before the policy reform of 2013), with concomitant rises in the number of bereaved parents (Wang, 2013).

Vulnerability of bereaved parents

We examined the vulnerability of bereaved parents using data for 282 non-bereaved parents with only one child, and 194 bereaved parents drawn from the survey on Development Capabilities of Families Practicing Family Planning in the Context of an Ageing Population conducted jointly by Xi’an University of Finance and Economics and the Xi’an Population and Family Planning Commission in July 2013 in Xi’an. The descriptive results of Table 1 are confirmed in regressions – i.e., controlling for other covariates (see Table 3 in Wei et al. 2016): bereaved parents are in disadvantaged situation.

For instance, bereaved parents are likely to report poorer health in self-rated health assessments, to have more chronic diseases, and to have a higher level of depression. Moreover, bereaved parents have less practical, emotional and social support, and fewer social interactions. Finally, they often face significant economic difficulties, having invested the bulk of their savings in the success of their only child (Wei et al., 2016). These results are in line with the others, also pointing to trauma among bereaved parents and their exposure to social stigma.

In the context of inadequate social protection and long-term care provision, this group of bereaved parents will face a highly insecure old-age, and they represent a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable population.

Policies in support of childless family planning parents

China’s birth control policy was enforced nationwide, at very large social and political costs (Wang et al., 2013): everyone suffered, but bereaved parents more so than others. China’s government acknowledged this and issued some regulations to support them. In late 2013, for instance, five ministries jointly issued a directive granting them old age security, medical insurance, and a monthly support of 340 Yuan (around 52 USD) for an urban parent, and 170 Yuan (around 26 USD) for a rural parent aged 49 and above. This directive also requires all kinds of social and government organs, especially grassroots family planning associations, to offer support to bereaved parents, although no concrete operational measures are mentioned. Some provinces have raised their financial support: in Shaanxi province, for instance, it is 1,000 Yuan (around 160 USD) and 800 Yuan for an urban / rural bereaved parent aged 60 and above.

However, such measures are not enough: according to China’s 2010 population census, the main economic resources of people aged 65 and over can be broken down as follows: 49% come from other family members, 25% from pension benefits, and 20% from own labour income.²

In short, without a sound old-age security system, Chinese elderly people depend mainly on their children for their old-age support. The issue of bereaved parents will remain on the economic and political agenda of Chinese leaders for many years to come.

References

Gu, B., F. Wang, Z. Guo, and E. Zhang. 2007. China’s local and national fertility policies at the end of the twentieth century. Population and Development Review 33(1): 129-147.

Jiang, Q., Y. Li, and J.J. Sánchez-Barricarte. 2014. The risk of mothers losing an only child in China. Journal of Biosocial Science 46(4): 531-545.

Wang, G. 2013. ‘Only-child-death’ family and its developing trends under the current family planning policy. Chinese Journal of Population Science 27(1): 57-65. (In Chinese)

Wang, F., Y. Cai, and B. Gu. 2013. Population, policy, and politics: How will history judge China’s one-child policy? Population and Development Review 38 (suppl): 115-129.

Wei, Y., Q. Jiang, and S. Gietel-Basten. 2016. The well-being of bereaved parents in an only-child society. Death Studies 40(1): 22-31.

¹ A somewhat relaxed version of the one-child policy, under which urban couples can have only one child, but rural parents can have a second child if the first child is a girl. There were also other exceptions, e.g., for ethnic minorities. For a detailed discussion, see Gu et al. (2007). Since 2015, China has officially abandoned its one(-and-a-half)-child policy and adopted a new one, allowing two children per couple.

² The rest comes from capital, alimony, and other, unspecified sources.

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Among the drivers of fertility decline, birth control policy is considered by some to be the most important, but this was probably true only at the beginning. In a context of socioeconomic transformation, low fertility in China today results mainly from low fertility intentions and preferences among its young people. The ideal number of children for most Chinese women is currently very low, between one and two.

Interwoven with this low fertility intention is deeply entrenched son preference. In the past, son preference was likely to raise fertility because parents would continue to give birth until the ideal gender composition or intended number of sons was reached (Guilmoto, 2012). However, with the development of fetal sex determination technology, which became widely available in China from the 1980s, couples are able to satisfy their son preferences via sex-selective abortions, which may lead to reduced fertility.

Fertility intention as a predictor of the second child

Fertility intentions have decreased continuously over recent decades in China. In a comprehensive meta-analysis of 227 surveys and 606,000 respondents since the early 1980s in China, a study reported that the ideal dropped from 2.13 children per women in the 1980s to 1.90 in the 1990s, and 1.67 in the 21st century (Hou et al., 2014). As shown in most other settings in the world, fertility outcomes fall below the ideal numbers, but the latter may be used to better understand the former, as in the case of the Chinese province of Shaanxi,¹ where a study carried out in 2013 shows an ideal fertility level of 1.84, only slightly above the national average.² The survey on which the study was based retrieved 2,920 valid questionnaires, from women aged 20 to 44 at the time of survey. Excluding 69 women who were divorced, separated, or widowed, 290 who were never married, and 460 who were married but had no children, analyses were restricted to 2,101 respondents.

The large majority (79.2 percent) of these 2,101 women reported an ideal number of children of two, with the remaining 18.2 percent reporting one (Figure 1). Figure 2 shows the cumulative probability of a second child by time elapsed since the first birth, separately for women with a “high” (2+ children) or “low” (0-1) ideal number of children. Five years (60 months) after the birth of the first child, the probability of having had a second birth was only 0.29 for women with high preferences, and only 0.10 for the others. After ten years, the two probabilities were 0.60 and 0.16 respectively. So, perhaps not surprisingly, fertility intentions predict, at least to some extent, the probability of having a second child in today’s China (Jiang et al., 2016).

Son preference and fertility (1)

Traditionally, Chinese families preferred to have at least one son to continue the family line and to provide care for the elderly. Before sex selection technologies were available and birth control was imposed, this cultural preference contributed to high fertility levels. However, with the growing popularity of fetal sex determination since the 1980s, people have been able to satisfy their son preferences via sex-selective abortions, which can depress fertility.

In Shaanxi province, urban couples (couples with urban household registration) were permitted only one child, whereas rural couples whose first child was a daughter were allowed to have another birth. In this context, it was much easier for couples with a daughter to have an extra child than it was for couples with a son, as indicated in Figure 3.

It seems that the greater probability of a second childbirth for couples whose first child is a daughter supports the claim that son preference increases the probability of an extra child and, in turn, raises fertility. However, this may be primarily due to the birth control policy which allowed couples with a daughter to have a second child.

Son preference and fertility (2)

We then examined the correlation of son preference with second childbirth probability. We measured son preference with the question: “If you were limited to one child, what would you want the child to be?” Possible answers were: “1. A boy, 2. A girl, 3. Doesn’t matter”. Those who preferred a boy were identified as having a son preference. After controlling for individual characteristics and socio-economic variables such as household registration type (which is an indicator of fertility policy) with Cox regression models, we found that women of childbearing age who reported son preference were much less likely to have had a second child than women without a son preference. After dividing the sample according to the gender of the first birth, we found that when the first child was a boy, the probability of a having had a second child was significantly lower for women with son preference.

The rationale of this result may lie in the fact that with a low ideal number of children, the parents who want to avoid a second birth while fulfilling their son preference will turn to sex identification technologies for the first birth and abort the fetus if it is a girl. If they have a son, they will be less likely to proceed to have a second child. This may also be indicated by the rise in the sex ratio at birth (the number of male births per 100 female births) for the first child, which increased in China from 107.1 in 2000 to 113.7 in 2010 (Jiang et al., 2016).

Is the recent easing of fertility constraints sufficient to reverse low fertility in China?

As fertility intentions are unlikely to recover in the near term, and with a son preference that is unlikely to disappear totally anytime soon, we predict that China’s fertility level will remain low, or very low. Therefore, it is essential for the Chinese government to remove all fertility constraints (Wang et al., 2013; Wang et al., 2016).

The Chinese governments has realized the negative implications of the (very) low fertility for long-term economic development, as well as for the age structure of the population. The rapid ageing problem, and the phenomenon of parents bereaved of their only child (in case of the child’s premature death) have drawn much attention to China’s low fertility level and fertility policy (Jiang et al., 2014). In 2013, the government initiated a partial fertility policy reform whereby if a spouse is an only child, the couple can have a second child. However, in the two years up to August 2015, just 1.69 million couples – a mere 15.4% of the 11 million who qualified for this policy change – actually requested permission for a second birth, well below the expectation.

In December 2015 the Chinese government adopted a universal two-child policy. The effect of this further relaxation remains to be seen, but according to some scholarly predictions and international experience, the Chinese government may soon realize that this is not enough. An immediate policy switch from an anti-natalist to a pro-natalist position might be a better approach for today’s China.

References

Cai, Y. 2013. China’s new demographic reality-learning from the 2010 census. Population and Development Review 39(3): 371–396.

Guilmoto, C. Z. 2012. Son preference, sex selection, and kinship in Vietnam. Population and Development Review 38(1): 31–54.

Hou, J., S. Huang, Z. Xin, L. Sun, H. Zhang, and D. Dou. 2014. The vicissitudes of Chinese fertility intentions: 1980–2011. Social Sciences in China 35(4): 78-97. (In Chinese).

Jiang, Q., Y. Li, and J. J. Sánchez-Barricarte. 2014. The risk of mothers losing an only child in China. Journal of Biosocial Science 46(4): 531-546.

Jiang, Q., Y. Li, and J. J. Sánchez-Barricarte. 2016. Fertility intention, son preference and second childbirth–Survey findings from Shaanxi Province of China. Social Indicators Research 125(3): 935-953.

Wang, F., Y. Cai, and B. Gu. 2013. Population, policy, and politics: How will history judge China’s one-child policy? Population and Development Review 38(s1): 115-129.

Wang, F., B. Gu, and Y. Cai. 2016. The end of China’s one-child policy. Studies in Family Planning 47(1): 83-86.

¹Shaanxi province is located in northwestern China. It is (very close to) average in several respects: e.g., economic development, fertility, fertility intentions, and birth control policy. This makes Shaanxi province a suitable site to examine the correlation between fertility intentions, son preference, and the birth of the second child.

² Fertility ideals should be measured before actual fertility is observed, to avoid ex-post rationalization. This proved impossible in this case: we must therefore rely on the (strong) assumption that family ideals have not changed over time – with respect to the actual number of children, at least.

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