Educational expansion has contributed to increasing the average lifespan and reducing its variability. As Jesús-Daniel Zazueta-Borboa, Ugofilippo Basellini and Fanny Janssen show for England & Wales, Finland, and Italy (Turin) from 1975 to 2015, this contribution has grown over time, and is likely to play an important role in shaping future longevity.
Introduction
Around the world, health policy agendas aim to reduce mortality disparities across population subgroups (Marmot 2007). One way of doing this is through educational expansion (through increases in compulsory education, literacy rates, and school enrolment). In Western countries, education became compulsory between the second half of the nineteenth century and the early twentieth century, although significant reforms occurred after 1945 (Viarengo 2007). This resulted in an increase in the average number of years of formal education from 6.2 to 11.9 in Europe between 1950 and 2015 (Lee and Lee 2016).
Educational expansion influences health and mortality trends through three potential mechanisms: it improves general knowledge about health, treatment adherence, and the adoption of better health behaviours (Sørensen et al. 2015); it facilitates the adoption of important social policy changes that indirectly affect health, like the implementation of national health systems (Mackenbach 2017); and last, it creates positive health selection, increasing, in particular, the number and share of older adults with tertiary education (Enroth et al. 2022).
Previous studies have estimated that between 16% and 40% of life expectancy increases in recent years can be attributed to educational expansion (Luy et al. 2019, Enroth et al. 2022). However, the role of educational expansion in determining trends in lifespan variation remains unknown. While life expectancy informs us about the average length of life, lifespan variation provides information on the variability in the age at death (van Raalte et al, 2018). Studying both metrics simultaneously enables a more thorough understanding of longevity. Moreover, we do not know if the contribution of educational expansion to time trends in life expectancy and lifespan variation has been changing over time, and the direction of these possible changes.
Trends in life expectancy and lifespan variation (1975-2015)
In a recent paper (Zazueta et al. 2025), we examined the contributions of educational expansion and mortality trends by educational attainment group to national trends in both life expectancy and lifespan variation. We covered England & Wales (E&W), Finland, and Italy (Turin), using individually linked mortality data by educational level (low, middle, high) by single years of age for those aged 30 and over, and by single calendar year for the period 1975-2015. This unique dataset is immune from the so-called numerator/denominator bias that affected previous studies because of the use of different, unlinked data sources for mortality by educational level and population by educational level.
Between 1975 and 2015, in all the countries examined, the proportion of individuals with middle and high education increased over time, while the share of those with low educational attainment declined from 76.8% in 1975 to 32.5% in 2015. For the different populations by sex, remaining life expectancy at age 30 increased over time, while lifespan variation declined (Figure 1A and 1B). However, levels and trends differed substantially by educational level. For life expectancy, the highly educated had higher levels and a faster rate of increase than the low educated. The low educated also exhibited an increasing trend in lifespan variation for males and for Finnish females, with increases in lifespan variation of 0.3 years and 0.7 years for males and females, respectively, between 1975 and 2015.
The impact of educational expansion on longevity trends
For the three countries and for both sexes, educational expansion contributed positively to the increase in life expectancy and the reduction of lifespan variation over the study period (Figure 2). Between 1975 and 2015, the contribution of educational expansion to the overall life expectancy increase of 7.5 years was 15.3% on average, ranging from 10% for Italian females to 20.9% for Finnish females. For lifespan variation declines, the contribution of educational expansion ranged from 12.2% (British females) to 80.8% (Italian females). Both results highlight the contribution of expanding education to global population health.
The contribution of educational expansion to the increase in life expectancy increased over time (Figure 3A). Between 1975 and 1985, this contribution was modest, averaging less than 10%, whereas between 2005 and 2015, it was 28.4% on average. The same pattern occurred for lifespan variation (Figure 3B). This result indicates that educational expansion will likely influence future mortality progress.
The impact of mortality trends by education on longevity trends
Across both sexes and the different welfare regimes, the main driver of national longevity trends proved to be the mortality trends among the low-educated, especially for females in E&W and Italy (Turin) (Figures 2 and 3). Mortality changes among low-educated groups at younger ages seem to be an important driver of changes at the national level. The members of this group have relatively high mortality, partially deriving from their lifestyles, e.g. high alcohol consumption in Finland (Zazueta et al. 2024).
Conclusion
Educational expansion results not only in longer lives, but also in more equal lifespans. Luckily, educational levels have improved over time, and should keep on doing so, which will likely (and positively) influence future mortality progress. In the recent past, the main driver of mortality progress at the national level was mortality change among the low-educated, which also contributed to reducing the variability of lifespan in selected populations, making them a primal focus of health policies.
Funding
This work is financed by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) as part of the research programme “Forecasting future socio-economic inequalities in longevity: the impact of lifestyle ‘epidemics’”, under grant no. VI.C.191.019. See: www.futurelongevitybyeducation.com.
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