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Contributions to total population change of the balance of births over deaths and of immigration over emigration, by income group, from 1950-60 to 2040-50.

Over the next few decades, migration will be the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries, as the number of deaths will progressively exceed the number of births. By contrast, for the foreseeable future, population increase in low-income and lower middle-income countries will continue to be driven by an excess of births over deaths.

Source: UN (2022). World Population prospects 2022. Summary of results. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division, pp. 20, 23.

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