Using data from the 2021–2022 Uzbekistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, Khilola Dushamova, Rashid Javed, Gayrat Suyunov and Munira Zakirova find that son preference shapes reproductive behaviour among Uzbek women. Women with at least one son are significantly less likely to have another child, and in all cases delay subsequent births, especially in rural contexts and at higher birth orders.
Son preference is well documented across South and East Asia. However, the Central Asian region has received far less scholarly attention. Central Asian societies are largely patriarchal and patrilineal, with men often viewed as symbols of family continuity. Uzbekistan’s sex ratio at birth, 108 boys per 100 girls, i.e. well above the natural level of around 105, is the highest in the region and comparable to that of India, where son preference has been extensively studied.
Country context
Uzbekistan is a double-landlocked nation, and, with it 24 million inhabitants, the most populous country in Central Asia. Historically, it has been the intersection of many civilizations and empires, including the Persian Empire, Alexander the Great’s empire, the Mongol Empire, and the Timurid Empire. During the 19th and early 20th centuries, Uzbekistan was part of the Russian Empire and later of the Soviet Union, whose collapse, in 1990, paved the way for its independence. Since then, Uzbekistan has experienced substantial economic, demographic, and social change, transforming itself from a low-income to a middle-income country.
Uzbekistan is a patriarchal and patrilineal society, where family lineage and inheritance are traditionally passed through the male line. Although recent legal reforms have promoted gender equality, deeply rooted customs continue to influence family dynamics. In Uzbek culture, sons are traditionally viewed as lifelong pillars of the family, responsible for carrying on the family name, inheriting property, and caring for aging parents. This cultural norm is reflected in this Uzbek proverb: O‘g‘il – tayanch, qiz – mehmon (A son is a support, a daughter is a guest).
Son preference and fertility
In a recent study (Dushamova et al., 2026), we used data from the recent round of Uzbekistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS, 2021–2022) to examine whether son preference influences the likelihood of having another child and the duration of the subsequent birth intervals. To this end we separately considered the effect of three independent variables:
1) Sex of the latest child
2) Presence of at least one son, and
3) Number of sons.
The main results we obtained are displayed in Figure 1.
The sex of the firstborn child, male or female, plays no role in women’s decisions about having additional children (Figure 1). However, from the second birth onwards, a clear pattern emerges: if the second-born child is male, women are up to 10% less likely to have a third birth. The effect becomes more pronounced when considering whether a woman has at least one son at a given birth order. After two children, women with at least one son are up to 16.7% less likely to proceed to a third birth. By the third and fourth birth orders, this gap widens to between 32% and 36%. The number of sons further reinforces this pattern. After the fourth birth, women with one, two, three, or four sons are 28.6% to 38.5% less likely to have a fifth birth compared to those whose first four children are female.
We also found a significant association between son preference and subsequent birth intervals. After the first birth, women with a firstborn son have a 14% longer subsequent birth interval. Similarly, having a male second-born child is associated with a 23% longer interval before the next birth. The effect is more pronounced when considering whether a woman has at least one son at a given birth order. Having at least one son is associated with a 35% longer interval between the second and third birth, and a 28% longer interval between the third and fourth. Women with a son are also significantly less likely to conceive within 24 months of a previous birth, or within the shorter and riskier thresholds of 15 or 18 months.
Son preference also shapes family planning. Women with at least one son are around 9 percentage points more likely to use contraceptives, suggesting that once a son is born, women actively take steps to limit further childbearing.
The stopping effect is stronger in rural areas, and results are broadly similar across income groups. These findings hold when the analysis is restricted to women aged 40 and above.
Our findings are comparable with other studies on Asian countries (Hoq, 2019; Hoque & Boulier, 2020; Javed & Mughal, 2020, 2022; Jiang et al., 2016; Robitaille & Milla, 2022; Zaidi & Morgan, 2016), and, in particular, align with those of a recent study on Uzbekistan’s neighboring country, Kyrgyzstan (Kazenin, 2023).
Summing up
Our research provides what we believe is the first evidence of son preference in Uzbekistan in terms of fertility behaviour, rather than sex ratio at birth, and the results that we obtain, not surprisingly, point in the same direction: son preference is a reality.
Despite progress in recent years, much remains to be done: the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal No. 5, which focuses on achieving gender equality and empowering all women and girls, has not yet been reached in Uzbekistan.
References
Dushamova, K., Javed, R., Suyunov, G., & Zakirova, M. (2026). A Tale of Two Choices : Son Preference and Reproductive Outcomes in Uzbekistan. Review of Development Economics, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.70152
Hoq, M. N. (2019). Effects of son preference on fertility: A parity progression analysis. Corvinus Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, 10(1), 27–45. https://doi.org/10.14267/CJSSP.2019.1.2
Hoque, N., & Boulier, B. L. (2020). Hi-tech Sexism? Evidence from Bangladesh. B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 20(3), 61–98. https://doi.org/10.1515/bejeap-2019-0269
Javed, R., & Mughal, M. (2020). Preference for boys and length of birth intervals in Pakistan. Research in Economics, 74(2), 140–152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2020.04.001
Javed, R., & Mughal, M. (2022). Changing patterns of son preference and fertility in Pakistan. Journal of International Development, 34(6), 1086–1109. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3618
Jiang, Q., Li, Y., & Sánchez-Barricarte, J. J. (2016). Fertility Intention, Son Preference, and Second Childbirth: Survey Findings from Shaanxi Province of China. Social Indicators Research, 125(3), 935–953. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-015-0875-z
Kazenin, K. (2023). Son preference, gender asymmetries and parity progressions: the case of Kyrgyzstan. Asian Population Studies, 19(1), 5–21. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441730.2021.1992858
Robitaille, M., & Milla, J. (2022). Son Targeting Fertility Behavior in Albania, IZA Discussion Paper, Issue 15122.
Zaidi, B., & Morgan, S. P. (2016). In the Pursuit of Sons: Additional Births or Sex-Selective Abortion in Pakistan? Population and Development Review, 42(4), 693–710. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12002